World Cup 2026 Semifinals: Dates, Venues, TV and Odds

The FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinals take place on 14 and 15 July, with Match 101 kicking off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (FIFA name: Dallas) and Match 102 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Two matches, four nations, and a place in the final at MetLife Stadium on the line. Set your reminders now.

France are the tournament's likeliest finalist at a consensus 54.7% probability when paired with Spain, while England vs Argentina shapes up as the most evenly contested of the probable semifinal collisions. If you are organising your week around these two nights of football, here is everything you need.

Semifinal Schedule and Venues

Both semifinals are single-elimination ties. If level after 90 minutes, extra time (2x15 minutes) follows, and if still level, a penalty shoot-out decides who travels to New York New Jersey for the final.

• M101: 14 July, 2:00 p.m. local (UTC-5) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington (FIFA name: Dallas). The winner of France vs Morocco (QF, 9 Jul, Boston) faces the winner of Spain vs Belgium (QF, 10 Jul, Los Angeles).
• M102: 15 July, 3:00 p.m. local (UTC-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The winner of Norway vs England (QF, 11 Jul, Miami) faces the winner of Argentina vs Switzerland (QF, 11 Jul, Kansas City).

Quick time-zone arithmetic: M101 kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. BST / 9:00 p.m. CET. M102 starts at 3:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. BST / 9:00 p.m. CET. Both are prime-time viewing in Europe.

For where-to-watch, the breakdown by market is straightforward. In the USA, FOX carries the tournament free over-the-air (around 70 of 104 matches), Telemundo broadcasts in Spanish across 92 matches, and Tubi streams select games. In Canada, TSN and RDS have all 104 matches, with select games free on CTV. In the UK, BBC and ITV share all 104 matches at no cost. Across Europe, free-to-air options include ARD and ZDF in Germany, RTVE in Spain, TF1 and M6 in France, and RTP, SIC and TVI in Portugal. Worth knowing: the first ten minutes of every match are free on YouTube, regardless of where you are.

World Cup Semifinal Odds

The table below shows the three most likely semifinal pairings by consensus probability, averaged across Opta (8 Jul) and Polymarket (7 Jul), with Kalshi (8 Jul) providing additional tournament-winner context. Pairing probability reflects the product of each team's individual chance of reaching this stage.

Figures are sourced from the Opta supercomputer (live feed, 8 Jul), Polymarket prices tracked on 7 Jul, and the Kalshi winner market updated 8 Jul. Probabilities shift as quarter-final results come in, so check back after 11 July for the live picture.

World Cup Semifinal Predictions

France vs Spain (Most Likely, 54.7%)

France have been the tournament's most complete side from the first whistle. Ten goals scored in the group stage, 14 across five matches in total, with Kylian Mbappe on seven goals and now the all-time World Cup knockout-stage top scorer. Their attack of Mbappe, Dembele, Barcola and Olise has caused problems for every defence they have faced, and a 1-0 win over Paraguay in the round of 16 showed they can grind when they have to. The one note of caution is the absence of Tchouameni through injury, which thins the midfield cover. France's Opta reach-SF probability sits at 73.9%; Polymarket has them at 78%. Kalshi makes them the outright tournament favourite at 34.1%.

Spain have conceded zero goals in five matches, which is the kind of statistic that tends to survive into semifinals. Substitute Merino's 90+1-minute goal edged Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16, and this is Spain's first quarter-final since they won the 2010 title. Their Opta reach-SF figure is 69.7%. France are the marginal favourite here, but a match that goes to extra time would surprise nobody. Call: France to advance, consistent with their ~76% average reach-SF probability against Spain's ~72%.

England vs Argentina (45.7%)

England beat Mexico 3-2 at the Azteca with ten men, Jude Bellingham scoring twice and Harry Kane converting a 60th-minute penalty to make it six goals at this tournament. Pickford has been outstanding in goal. The significant logistical problem is Quansah's suspension carried over from the quarter-final, which forces a defensive reshuffle. England's Opta reach-SF probability is 62.4%; Polymarket has them at 66%.

Argentina are the holders and have reached this stage via two dramatic escapes: 3-2 after extra time against Cabo Verde, then 3-2 against Egypt after trailing 0-2. Lionel Messi has eight goals, leads the Golden Boot race, and is the all-time World Cup top scorer. A second consecutive title would be the first back-to-back since Brazil in 1962. Argentina's Opta reach-SF probability is 69.1%; Polymarket has them at 74%. The quarter-final 1X2 line had Argentina at approximately 1.72 against Switzerland. Call: Argentina to advance, consistent with their higher reach-SF probability, though England's defensive resilience makes this closer than the numbers suggest.

Norway vs Argentina (25.9%)

Norway's 25.9% pairing probability reflects the fact that they first need to get past England in the quarter-final, where the 1X2 line opened with England as clear favourites (approximately 1.81 decimal). That said, Norway knocked Brazil out 2-1 with Erling Haaland scoring in the 79th and 90th minutes, and Haaland has scored in every World Cup match he has played at this tournament. This is Norway's first-ever quarter-final. Their Opta reach-SF probability is 37.7%; Polymarket has them at 35%. If Norway do make it through, they would face a formidable Argentina side in Atlanta. Call: Argentina to advance in this scenario, with Norway's 25.9% pairing probability reflecting the size of the task ahead.

Semifinal Betting Tips

Three angles worth considering as the quarter-finals settle the bracket.

• Match result market: France to win M101 in regulation. France's consensus reach-SF probability of roughly 76% combined with Spain conceding zero goals all tournament sets up a tight, low-scoring affair, but France's firepower across 14 goals in five games makes them the value side in the match result market. At an implied probability of ~76%, a decimal price of approximately 1.32 would represent fair value; anything above that is worth considering.
• To reach the final: Argentina to reach the final from M102. Their Opta reach-final probability is 36.4% and Polymarket has them at 40%, giving a consensus of roughly 38%. That implies a fair decimal price of around 2.63. Argentina have shown the ability to win ugly, which matters in a knockout semifinal.
• Outright winner: France at Kalshi's 34.1% tournament-winner probability implies a fair decimal price of approximately 2.93. With the most consistent group-stage performance, the tournament's leading scorer, and the highest reach-SF probability of any side remaining, France represent the clearest outright case in the field.

Betting should always be approached as entertainment; only wager amounts you are comfortable losing, and use the responsible gambling tools your platform provides if you need to set limits.

FAQ

What date is the World Cup semifinal?
The two semifinals are on 14 July (M101) and 15 July (M102). M101 kicks off at 2:00 p.m. local time (UTC-5) and M102 at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4).

Where is the semifinal being held?
M101 is at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (FIFA name: Dallas). M102 is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

What channel is the semifinal on in the USA, Canada, the UK and Europe?
In the USA, FOX (free over-the-air) and Telemundo (Spanish) are the primary broadcasters, with Tubi carrying select matches. In Canada, TSN and RDS have full coverage, with select games free on CTV. In the UK, BBC and ITV share all matches free. Across Europe, free-to-air options include ARD and ZDF (Germany), RTVE (Spain), TF1 and M6 (France), and RTP, SIC and TVI (Portugal). The first ten minutes of every match are also free on YouTube.

Who is likely to win the semifinal?
Based on consensus probabilities from Opta (8 Jul) and Polymarket (7 Jul), France are the likeliest semifinal winners in M101 at a pairing probability of 54.7% against Spain. In M102, Argentina are favoured over England at a pairing probability of 45.7%, with Kalshi's tournament-winner market backing France overall at 34.1%.