Paraguay vs France: Goalscorer Tips, Odds & Picks

Paraguay and France meet in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 on 4 July 2026, kicking off at 5:00 p.m. local time at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. France are overwhelming favourites, carrying 13 goals in four games into a tie against a Paraguay side that shocked four-time champions Germany on penalties. The goalscorer markets are where the real value lives here: with Kylian Mbappé on six tournament goals and Ousmane Dembélé already boasting a hat-trick, the question is not whether France score but who gets on the scoresheet first. Read on for anytime and first scorer picks, match odds, best bets and a full match preview.

Goalscorer Markets Explained

The three core scorer markets are anytime goalscorer (your pick scores at any point), first goalscorer (your pick opens the scoring) and last goalscorer (your pick scores the final goal). Prices differ significantly across all three. First scorer carries the highest risk and reward; anytime is the volume play and the most popular entry point for casual bettors.

What moves scorer prices? Minutes played is the foundation: a striker who starts and plays 90 minutes has far more opportunities than a substitute. Role matters equally: a centre-forward who leads the line in a possession-dominant side will see far more touches in dangerous areas than a wide midfielder sitting in a deep block. Set-piece and penalty duty is the third lever. A player who steps up to penalties or takes direct free kicks from dangerous positions carries a structural scoring edge that pure open-play forwards do not. All odds referenced in this article are available via Dexsport and are correct at time of writing.

Anytime & First Scorer Picks

Kylian Mbappé (France, anytime and first scorer) is the anchor pick. He has scored six goals in four games at this tournament, including two against Sweden in the Round of 32. France average over three goals per game here and Mbappé leads their attack for Real Madrid and the national side. He is fit and starting. As France's primary striker against a compact low block, he will receive the ball in and around the penalty area repeatedly. Anytime scorer is the safer play; first scorer carries a premium but is justified by his output rate.

Ousmane Dembélé (France, anytime scorer) is the secondary pick. He scored a hat-trick in 32 minutes against Iraq, the second-fastest in World Cup history according to the research dossier, and is in the form of his career. Operating from wide positions, he cuts inside and arrives in the box with regularity. At anytime scorer odds, he represents strong value given his scoring rate this tournament.

Bradley Barcola (France, anytime scorer) is the third-forward option worth noting. He has scored twice in the tournament, against Senegal and Sweden. He offers a slightly longer price than Mbappé or Dembélé while playing in the same front three and benefiting from the same attacking platform.

Julio Enciso (Paraguay, longshot anytime scorer) is the only realistic Paraguay scorer prop to consider. He scored the header against Germany that forced extra time and is their most active attacking threat. Given Paraguay's low output of three goals in four games, the price will be long and the probability low, but if Paraguay are to score, Enciso is their most likely source.

Paraguay vs France Match Preview

France won all three group games, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1, then beat Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. They are the only side at this edition to win all four games and are rated among the tournament favourites. Paraguay advanced from Group D as one of the best third-placed teams after losing to the USA 1-4, beating Turkey 1-0 and drawing Australia 0-0. Their Round of 32 story is the tournament's biggest shock: they drew Germany 1-1 after extra time and won 4-3 on penalties, with goalkeeper Orlando Gill saving two spot kicks.

The tactical contrast is stark. Didier Deschamps sets France in a pragmatic 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 built around elite individual pace and firepower. Gustavo Alfaro has Paraguay sitting in a disciplined 4-4-2 in two banks of four, defending deep and looking to spring Miguel Almirón, who returns from suspension, in behind on the counter. France will dominate the ball. Paraguay will try to keep it tight, absorb pressure and either nick a goal on the break or force another shootout. The key duel is Mbappé and Michael Olise against Paraguay's defensive line, led by captain Gustavo Gómez.

Paraguay vs France Odds

France at 1.19 implies an 84% probability of winning in 90 minutes (margin included). Paraguay at 15.00 implies just 7%. The draw sits at 7.00, implying 14%. These three figures sum above 100%, reflecting the bookmaker margin built into the prices. Check live odds for this match at Dexsport for the most current prices across all markets.

Paraguay vs France Predictions

Best Bet: Mbappé Anytime Scorer. Six goals in four games. Starts up front against a deep block that France will pin back for long periods. The structural conditions for him to score are as strong as they have been all tournament. This is the pick to anchor your betting slip.

Value Bet: Dembélé Anytime Scorer. A hat-trick in 32 minutes against Iraq shows his capacity to score in bunches. He will operate against a Paraguay left flank that will be stretched by France's pace. His price should sit longer than Mbappé's while his scoring rate at this tournament is comparable.

Longshot Bet: Julio Enciso Anytime Scorer. Paraguay have scored three goals in four games and Enciso is responsible for the most important one. If Paraguay are to find the net here, he is the most likely candidate. The odds will be long and the probability is low, but it is the only Paraguay scorer prop grounded in tournament evidence.

Why This Match Matters

The winner advances to the quarter-finals, where they face the winner of Canada vs Morocco in Match 97. For France, this is a straightforward step on a path to the latter stages of a tournament they entered as favourites. For Paraguay, it is a chance to follow the greatest result in their modern history with another. They are back at the World Cup knockout stage for the first time since 2010, having been absent for 16 years. The ranking gap between the sides is 38 places: France are third in the world, Paraguay 41st, making this one of the most lopsided ties of the round on paper.

The narrative thread running through the match is Deschamps himself. He captained France in the 1998 World Cup Round of 16 win over Paraguay, a game decided by Laurent Blanc's golden goal in the 114th minute. He now manages France against the same opponent in the same round, 28 years later. He rejoined the squad mid-tournament after his mother's funeral, having missed the Norway group game.

France Form and Paraguay Form

France have been the standout team of the tournament. They beat Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1 in the group stage, then beat Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. Thirteen goals in four games, two conceded, two clean sheets. Mbappé has six goals. Dembélé scored a hat-trick against Iraq. Barcola has two goals. Olise has five assists and set up both Mbappé goals against Sweden. Marcus Thuram is a doubt with a calf injury after missing the Sweden game. William Saliba was rested against Norway. The front three of Mbappé, Dembélé and Barcola are fit and available.

Paraguay have been defined by defensive organisation and nerve. They lost 1-4 to the USA, beat Turkey 1-0, drew Australia 0-0, then drew Germany 1-1 after extra time and won 4-3 on penalties. Three goals in four games. Orlando Gill saved two penalties in the shootout against Germany. Miguel Almirón returns from suspension. Omar Alderete and Ramón Sosa carry injury doubts. Gustavo Gómez leads a defence that has kept multiple clean sheets but faces a France attack of a different quality to anything they have faced so far.

Head-to-Head Record

France have never lost to Paraguay across all meetings. The five recorded encounters are as follows:

• 8 June 1958 (World Cup group stage): France 7-3 Paraguay
• 28 June 1998 (World Cup Round of 16): France 1-0 Paraguay (Laurent Blanc, 114 minutes, golden goal)
• 31 May 2008 (Friendly): France 0-0 Paraguay
• 1 June 2014 (Friendly): France 1-1 Paraguay
• 2 June 2017 (Friendly): France 5-0 Paraguay

France's record reads three wins and two draws. Paraguay have not beaten France in any of the five meetings. The most recent encounter ended 5-0 to France. The only time Paraguay have faced France at a World Cup, France won. That context is relevant to the match winner market and to the anytime scorer picks built around France's forwards.

Best Bets and Markets Worth Watching

Match Winner: France. At 1.19, the price is short but the implied probability of 84% (margin included) reflects a genuine quality and form gap. Thirteen goals in four games against a side with three speaks for itself.

BTTS: No. Paraguay have scored three goals in four games. France have two clean sheets in four. The research points to France scoring and Paraguay struggling to add a goal at the other end against a defensively solid French side. BTTS No is the qualitative lean here.

Over 2.5 France Goals. France are averaging over three goals per game. Paraguay defend deep but conceded to Germany and to the USA 1-4 in the group stage. An early France goal forces Paraguay out of their block and opens space for Mbappé and Dembélé to add more.

First Scorer: Mbappé. Six goals in four games, leads the line, France expected to attack from the first whistle. The price will be the shortest of any scorer option but the rationale is the strongest.

Anytime Scorer: Dembélé. The value play in the French front three. His hat-trick against Iraq demonstrates his capacity to score multiples in a single game; anytime scorer at a longer price than Mbappé offers a better return for similar probability.

Popular Betting Options

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Betting Tips

• Tip 1: France to Win (Match Winner) - The form gap, ranking gap and head-to-head record all point the same direction. France have won all four games and scored 13 goals. At 1.19, this is a low-return anchor for a combination bet.
• Tip 2: Mbappé Anytime Scorer - Six tournament goals, leads France's attack, faces a Paraguay defence under sustained pressure for 90 minutes. The standout scorer pick of the match.
• Tip 3: Dembélé Anytime Scorer - Hat-trick against Iraq, consistent presence in the final third, longer price than Mbappé with comparable tournament scoring form.
• Tip 4: BTTS No - Paraguay's low attacking output and France's clean-sheet record make a Paraguay goal against the run of probability. The qualitative read is France to win without conceding.
• Tip 5: Julio Enciso Anytime Scorer (Longshot) - If Paraguay score, Enciso is the most likely source based on tournament evidence. Long odds reflect the low probability but he is the only Paraguay scorer prop worth considering.

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FAQ

Who is most likely to score first?
Kylian Mbappé is the strongest candidate based on tournament evidence. He has scored six goals in four games at this World Cup, leads France's attack and will be central to their offensive play from the opening whistle. France are expected to dominate possession and attack early, making the first scorer market one where Mbappé's price is justified by his output.

Which anytime scorer offers the best value?
Ousmane Dembélé at anytime scorer is the value angle among France's forwards. His hat-trick against Iraq is the most recent evidence of his capacity to score, and his price should sit longer than Mbappé's while he operates in the same attacking system with the same scoring opportunities. For those wanting a longer price with a grounded rationale, Dembélé is the pick.

Do penalties or set pieces affect the scorer picks?
The research does not detail France's designated penalty taker or set-piece routine for this match, so no specific penalty-duty edge can be assigned to an individual player here. What the research does confirm is that Paraguay won their previous match on penalties, with Orlando Gill saving two spot kicks. If this match reaches a shootout, Paraguay's goalkeeping record becomes relevant.

Should I consider a defender or midfielder to score?
The research does not identify a French defender or midfielder as a primary set-piece or scoring threat in this tournament. For Paraguay, Gustavo Gómez leads the defence and captains the side, but no scoring record at this tournament is attributed to him in the research. The goalscorer value in this match is concentrated in France's front three and, at long odds, Julio Enciso for Paraguay.